Column: Crack a Code?

Welcome to the editorial page. Now, for just a second, check out something quite useful: The Path to Purchase Institute’s 2016 “Retailer Receptivity” wall chart.This is the third major update of our guide to how 49 in-store marketing tactics are received (or not) by 15 major U.S. chains. Over the years, I’ve seen it pinned up on countless office, cube and conference room walls throughout the industry. It indicates which in-store marketing vehicles (display types, signage concepts, etc.) are “often, sometimes or rarely” accepted and/or deployed by the big national chains.It is just a guide: No tactic is listed as “never” used because few retailers are completely inflexible. Likewise, you won’t find “always” there either, because no chain is that predictably uniform from buyer to buyer. Still, don’t be dissuaded if you find a red mark on a display tactic you believe would be perfect at Chain X: Sometimes, those who dare, win … sometimes.When Peter Breen and I sat down to matrix out our very first version of this chart back in 2012, we were mainly hoping it didn’t blow up in our faces. It didn’t, and the chains that did weigh in with feedback had only minor course-corrections.But I never dreamed our little chart could be taken to the next level of analysis (below), which shows cost and lift per 1,000 shoppers as well as overall ROI. We first saw it during the Foresight ROI/Great Northern Instore presentation at February’s Forum of Merchandising Executives meeting. “Marketers need to know if shopper marketing works and if it’s a good return on investment relative to alternatives,” says Rick Abens, CEO, Foresight ROI. “For this, they need metrics that are standardized for comparability that they can use to justify the increased spending.”View full-size chart.Abens created his chart using a standardized econometric predictive model fueled by POS data (sales with merchandising activity) from Nielsen, Symphony IRI and/or 84.51° as well as in-store tactic reach and cost data from either the marketers themselves or a vendor like News America. Abens says Foresight ROI also gathers other sales driver data such as brand marketing reach, pricing, merchandising, competitive activity, the economy and the weather.Abens says Foresight ROI has measured the shopper marketing ROI of all of tactics in over 15,000 events, measuring the “the sales impact of each of the tactics separately on the shopper marketing mix predictive model.”Why go to all this trouble? “Many of our customers have specific programs, but often don’t know which particular in-store vehicles are better investments,” says Dan Sabanosh, director, shopper marketing, Great Northern Instore. “This study is across a broad data set so it can be very different, depending on category, retail environment and the design of the actual vehicle. Using Foresight ROI’s techniques, crowdsourced data about the compliance and the location of a display can also be considered.”The chart shown here is a compilation of overall results, but Abens says the ROI performance for the same tactic will vary greatly from chain to chain and brand to brand. To get that, he’ll have to take you on a deeper, more granular dive.But there is one topline result that I think most industry watchers will be receptive to: “We are finding that shopper marketing works,” he says, “and that the companies that measure it, typically increase spending.” Bill Schober is editorial director of the Path to Purchase Institute. He can be reached via e-mail: bschober@p2pi.org or phone: 773-992-4430.

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